If you are so confident that contact with aliens has been made & the government is about to disclose what it knows, how about putting your money where your confidence is? A $1000 wager by 12/31/2024?
I think the UFO/UAP/ETI phenomenon and us human's contemplations of this phenomenon is fascinating and takes on dimensions that approximate faith and religiosity for those that likely eschew religion. For the record, I'm not an active believer in God; but neither am I an active denier of some grand intelligence that we could call "God" doing grand, supernatural things. I don't know myself, so I guess I'm an agnostic? I humbly acknowledge my ignorance here.
I have a BS in Biology, so I have some measure of sophistication with regards to my contemplations of these matters but I'd like to take this opportunity to query those priests of knowledge here who exceed my academic status and who might grace me with their responses. [Sorry for coming off a bit sardonic here, I'm coming from a space that's a bit light-hearted and I mean no ill will. I actually do respect the academic accomplishments of those here, but I confess to gravitating towards an impulse to deflate the egos of those who claim to know more than they probably do about this subject]
A few basic questions I'd like to ask:
(1) Is Human thinking and Human sense-perception up to the task of fully understanding the Universe and any other intelligences we might encounter? We're objectively smart enough to know an alien when we encounter one when an alien manifests itself in a way that is sensible to an alien...right?
(2) Is Human thinking and sense-perception an asset or liability to how well we perceive and process information that we encounter in the Universe? It's fortuitous that Humans evolved in just a way to match all possible ways the Universe can produce, exchange, and process information, right? The ancient Greeks had transcendently brilliant people in their ranks but were utterly ignorant of radio, say; and all the ways information can be transferred therein. But radio waves existed 2000+ years ago in ancient Greece (and everywhere). Is it possible wildly radical and seemingly supernatural processes and phenomena exist in the physical reality of the Universe that humans have yet to encounter or discover but are old hat to ET's?
(3) How do we handle a situation in which our expectations of what ETI's "should be" based upon our understanding of physical reality just doesn't match how they actually are?
(4) If, when thinking about the amazing progress that Humanity has made technologically since the advent of the Enlightenment and the Scientific Revolution, we project into the future that Humans one day will "travel to the stars" isn't that also a proclamation that our current understanding about the Laws of Nature are incomplete? If we acknowledge that our current understanding of physics is "incomplete", why do we let this flawed understanding of Nature inform our notions of what is and what isn't possible with regards to aliens, UFO's, etc. and why we can't perceive them and "where are they?"?
Michael, I am enough of a scientist to have worked it out for myself. In terms of the two questions you posed, I'd respond in reverse order. Non-earth-based intelligent life has not come here voluntarily. I know that I am stating that rather categorically, but open ended in that I can almost imagine that elements of life might have arrived here "accidentally" by normal processes such as material from space falling on our planet; further I cannot rule out that something that fell here might have been "alive" in some technical sense given the billions of years that have passed since formation of the Solar System and our planet.
However, I differ from most people on your second question even though I must be more specific in order to give my answer. Other than in contexts involving the famous Schrodinger's Cat and/or particle entanglement nothing has ever been observed going faster than light. So that would be a limit on how fast some intelligent thing could travel to get here. A lot of folks don't take into account speeding up and slowing down, but the minimum transit time between two celestial bodies cannot actually be faster than a certain multiple of the speed of light. Energy physics is such that there is a relationship between speed and mass; the more something weighs the more energy it takes to accelerate that object. For any payload, let's say a living creature and its support materials (food? air of some kind? etc) the amount of energy needed to move that ship balloons, then multiplies because you need more energy every time you add an additional source of energy. A creature in such a ship would experience the extreme accelerations as well as extreme radiation over the entire lengthy transit time and it is hard to imagine that any natural intelligence could evolve on any planet with characteristics amenable to travel through hard space. Even worse, if somehow a ship could travel here it would need to be provisioned to return to its origin or face isolation. I don't mention communications back to the home world (impossible), I don't mention the extreme navigation in earth's atmosphere (impossible), I don't mention the lack of detection by humans (also impossible for any real object to achieve). But for me, the biggest reason an intelligent life form has not traveled here is that the transit time, even from a nearby world, would be hundreds and hundreds of solar cycles (years) - what are the odds that some specie somewhere is living for hundreds and hundreds of years, confined in a vehicle, carrying many many many tons of propellant, resisting the radiation and doing all of this without communications back to its home? Nah, nothing like that is happening folks...
But are they out there? Again I answer in the negative, if by "they" we mean an intelligent space-faring living being. It is hard for us humans to envision the multitude of "accidents" that led to the development of intelligent tool-users on this planet. Many species on this planet seize upon objects in their environment to use as tools. Tool making might be an "ordinary" activity of animals on this planet. So be it. However, the number and type and specific timing of cataclysmic events that contributed to the development of creatures such as us is mind-boggling. While infinity is duh infinite, my bet is that there are very few sufficiently advanced technical species that ever develop. Combine this suspected rarity of development with how these civilizations might be spaced out in time and how they might be spaced out within the galaxy and within the universe there won't be many. The traditional calculations go something like: there are so many stars, so many planets, so many galaxies there must be an intelligent species out there somewhere just by the numbers. But when you think about the deepness of time and the immensity of space it is not obvious that such beings, if they could somehow arise, would even occupy any part of our contemporary universe.
For me, the better bet is that the human race is all we know of so-called intelligent life. Our race, our culture, our leadership and our fellows had best start acting like this planet and this people are as valuable and irreplaceable as they probably are...
Its no less impossible to go from a dead stop to 10,000 MPH without the craft disintegrating than FTL travel, so given that our understanding of gravity is very low, and our ability to create it is zero, maybe there is an undiscovered manipulation of the fabric of space-time via gravity wave generation at play by which the transit is reduced in duration or even distance in space. If you do not believe the 10,000 + witnesses who have described such performance capabilties (in addition to RADAR data, photos, video's etc.), that's your perogative, but if "they" are playing by a different set of rules here on earth, then perhaps its the same "out there." Regardless, it warrants a sober and scientific investigation without ridicule that does not screen out any potential hypothesis on the basis of 'I haven't seen it' as there may be good reasons why you haven't ... follow the data without preconceived expectations as any good scientist should. I don't see such an eclectic, widespread and prolific smattering of credible people witnessing incredible things in other paranormal genres like ghosts or Bigfoot or something. I'm not saying it's a sure thing, I'm saying it deserves legitimate, funded and serious study by legitimate, funded and serious people.
I think I have an interesting spin regarding the ufo challenge (1000$) you've put up, which you will find rather interesting.
In Elena Danaan's book, "a gift from the stars - extraterrestrial contacts and guide of alien races" p. 345 Alien Blood it is revealed by her contacts off planet that O blood type is extra terrestrial while the other blood types are indigenous to planet earth. The Annunaki then engineered the D protein to make the O blood type compatible with the other indigenous blood types.
I find this a rather interesting scientific discovery if that is indeed the case, which I think it is. Don't you think?
Also, could I be a contender for the 1000$ please?
This is one of the world’s best UFO videos, in my opinion.
The unknown object (white light) which flies slowly over Tokyo – is first seen in the upper left corner of the screen.
When the UFO is closest to the helicopter camera, one can see the body of the large elongated (or circular) UFO, and that it has large red and white pulsating lights (4 lights). The colours of the three blinking/pulsating lights varies between white and red. The largest light (white) does not pulsate.
The UFO seems to stop near the Tokyo Tower for a short while. It appears that the NHK camera operator notices the UFO, because the camera follows the UFO for a short while.
The fact that the video comes from Japan’s state broadcaster means that it is unimpeachable.
The footage comes from NHK World TV’s Aerial Tokyo channel, aired on 13 April 2022, at approximately 7:00 p.m. CET. This channel can be found in the German TV app, TV PRO.
You guys, especially mr. Shermer are so smug. You just love telling people they are wrong and don’t know what they are talking about. Hundreds of credible people have (isn’t that the top question on your bullshit detection quiz?) talked about their experiences.
You are still using the Sagan logic of speed of light etc.
I haven’t ever heard you talk about other possibilities. Maybe there are different physics at play? Or things we can’t even fathom.
All I know is there is obviously something real happening, and if everyone agrees it isn’t from here, then where else could it be from? If you don’t think there are people who have a lot more info on this, then you are naive. I don’t know. But, neither do you. So stop it.
I recently re-read The Demon-Haunted World and forgot how much time was devoted to debunking extraterrestrials and UFOs. As a teenager in the 90's this seemed like a valid idea to debate but now, decades later, seems downright silly. I wonder how younger generations reading TDHW would take to Sagan to having to devote so much time to an idea that has retreated back to the fringe. I loved XKCD demolishing of all of this years back https://xkcd.com/1235/
I happen to disagree with the basic assuptions of both biology and physics that underlie the ideas discussed here.
First, humans did not develop as they did by accident. They, like all species, formed under the influence of environmental factors that determined the forms and behaviors that we see. These factors exist on all planets and would result in the same species forming on all of them. We can observe the process of already known species forming again and again directly from non-living materials on this planet. So I would expect to find humans identical to earth-humans on any world where humans could live.
Second, the current laws of physics are seriously flawed. Ever since the Michaelson-Morley experiment mistakenly abandoned the ether theory earth people's physics has been on the wrong track. The mistaken relativety theory blocks human scientists from seeing that once the ether is recognized there is no inherent limit to speeds in space. It is simply hubris to think current human science has the right slant and no further developments are possible.
I have no idea if ETs have been here or not so I take no position on that. But I do know that any world where conditions are liveable for humans will have them living there and that any physics theory that disposes of the ether and claims the universe is nothing but empty space with specks of matter here and there is contrrary to numerous observations that prove there is an ether so any speed limits it implies should be ignored.
We should all get in on the action and pledge $1,000. So when we win lots of us will eat get our money back and the alien boosters will be out of action for a long time.
In the report issued by ODNI, 144 cases of UAPs were analyzed, with one being attributed to terrestrial means. The rest unexplained. The US government states that those 143 cases can be attributed to 5 possible explanations:
airborne clutter, natural atmospheric phenomena, USG or U.S. industry developmental programs, foreign adversary systems, and a catchall “other” bin.
So maybe all those people you mention ( by the way, before you include Jacques Vallee as one who states it’s aliens, you should know he’s never said that) should challenge you. $1000 if all of those 143 unexplained phenomena can be proven by the US government (a disclosure if you will) to be either airborne clutter, atmospheric phenomena, US developed technology, or foreign technology. If you’re so sure, a year and a half to prove what those 143 events actually were shouldn’t be hard to do.
By the way, that ODNI report was in fact a disclosure…that there are events in the skies that are unexplainable, and haven’t been proven to be terrestrial, and are in fact a security risk, and are in fact worthy of further investigation. It’s pretty simple, regardless of people who pontificate as to knowing what they are, like Elizondo…and you.
The late Philip J. Klass, the "Dean of UFO Debunkers", famously offered 10-to-1 odds that proof of ET visitations would NOT be revealed during the lifetime of both parties. Klass would pay $10,000, the other party risked only $1,000. A few nibbles, but nobody followed through.
I think the UFO/UAP/ETI phenomenon and us human's contemplations of this phenomenon is fascinating and takes on dimensions that approximate faith and religiosity for those that likely eschew religion. For the record, I'm not an active believer in God; but neither am I an active denier of some grand intelligence that we could call "God" doing grand, supernatural things. I don't know myself, so I guess I'm an agnostic? I humbly acknowledge my ignorance here.
I have a BS in Biology, so I have some measure of sophistication with regards to my contemplations of these matters but I'd like to take this opportunity to query those priests of knowledge here who exceed my academic status and who might grace me with their responses. [Sorry for coming off a bit sardonic here, I'm coming from a space that's a bit light-hearted and I mean no ill will. I actually do respect the academic accomplishments of those here, but I confess to gravitating towards an impulse to deflate the egos of those who claim to know more than they probably do about this subject]
A few basic questions I'd like to ask:
(1) Is Human thinking and Human sense-perception up to the task of fully understanding the Universe and any other intelligences we might encounter? We're objectively smart enough to know an alien when we encounter one when an alien manifests itself in a way that is sensible to an alien...right?
(2) Is Human thinking and sense-perception an asset or liability to how well we perceive and process information that we encounter in the Universe? It's fortuitous that Humans evolved in just a way to match all possible ways the Universe can produce, exchange, and process information, right? The ancient Greeks had transcendently brilliant people in their ranks but were utterly ignorant of radio, say; and all the ways information can be transferred therein. But radio waves existed 2000+ years ago in ancient Greece (and everywhere). Is it possible wildly radical and seemingly supernatural processes and phenomena exist in the physical reality of the Universe that humans have yet to encounter or discover but are old hat to ET's?
(3) How do we handle a situation in which our expectations of what ETI's "should be" based upon our understanding of physical reality just doesn't match how they actually are?
(4) If, when thinking about the amazing progress that Humanity has made technologically since the advent of the Enlightenment and the Scientific Revolution, we project into the future that Humans one day will "travel to the stars" isn't that also a proclamation that our current understanding about the Laws of Nature are incomplete? If we acknowledge that our current understanding of physics is "incomplete", why do we let this flawed understanding of Nature inform our notions of what is and what isn't possible with regards to aliens, UFO's, etc. and why we can't perceive them and "where are they?"?
Thanks,
Mike
Michael, I am enough of a scientist to have worked it out for myself. In terms of the two questions you posed, I'd respond in reverse order. Non-earth-based intelligent life has not come here voluntarily. I know that I am stating that rather categorically, but open ended in that I can almost imagine that elements of life might have arrived here "accidentally" by normal processes such as material from space falling on our planet; further I cannot rule out that something that fell here might have been "alive" in some technical sense given the billions of years that have passed since formation of the Solar System and our planet.
However, I differ from most people on your second question even though I must be more specific in order to give my answer. Other than in contexts involving the famous Schrodinger's Cat and/or particle entanglement nothing has ever been observed going faster than light. So that would be a limit on how fast some intelligent thing could travel to get here. A lot of folks don't take into account speeding up and slowing down, but the minimum transit time between two celestial bodies cannot actually be faster than a certain multiple of the speed of light. Energy physics is such that there is a relationship between speed and mass; the more something weighs the more energy it takes to accelerate that object. For any payload, let's say a living creature and its support materials (food? air of some kind? etc) the amount of energy needed to move that ship balloons, then multiplies because you need more energy every time you add an additional source of energy. A creature in such a ship would experience the extreme accelerations as well as extreme radiation over the entire lengthy transit time and it is hard to imagine that any natural intelligence could evolve on any planet with characteristics amenable to travel through hard space. Even worse, if somehow a ship could travel here it would need to be provisioned to return to its origin or face isolation. I don't mention communications back to the home world (impossible), I don't mention the extreme navigation in earth's atmosphere (impossible), I don't mention the lack of detection by humans (also impossible for any real object to achieve). But for me, the biggest reason an intelligent life form has not traveled here is that the transit time, even from a nearby world, would be hundreds and hundreds of solar cycles (years) - what are the odds that some specie somewhere is living for hundreds and hundreds of years, confined in a vehicle, carrying many many many tons of propellant, resisting the radiation and doing all of this without communications back to its home? Nah, nothing like that is happening folks...
But are they out there? Again I answer in the negative, if by "they" we mean an intelligent space-faring living being. It is hard for us humans to envision the multitude of "accidents" that led to the development of intelligent tool-users on this planet. Many species on this planet seize upon objects in their environment to use as tools. Tool making might be an "ordinary" activity of animals on this planet. So be it. However, the number and type and specific timing of cataclysmic events that contributed to the development of creatures such as us is mind-boggling. While infinity is duh infinite, my bet is that there are very few sufficiently advanced technical species that ever develop. Combine this suspected rarity of development with how these civilizations might be spaced out in time and how they might be spaced out within the galaxy and within the universe there won't be many. The traditional calculations go something like: there are so many stars, so many planets, so many galaxies there must be an intelligent species out there somewhere just by the numbers. But when you think about the deepness of time and the immensity of space it is not obvious that such beings, if they could somehow arise, would even occupy any part of our contemporary universe.
For me, the better bet is that the human race is all we know of so-called intelligent life. Our race, our culture, our leadership and our fellows had best start acting like this planet and this people are as valuable and irreplaceable as they probably are...
Re "(1) Are they out there? (2) Have they come here?" - My answer is probably yes to both. However, I won't take the bet. Here's why:
https://www.turingchurch.com/p/et-is-smarter-than-enrico-fermi-and?s=w
I don't think the government has 100% proof of alien contact, but they
have definitely withheld information from the public. Disclosure will
just result in a growing backlog of observations that don't have a
good explanation. The government won't be offering any novel
explanations, and neither will Mr. Shemer. I'm not a believer but I
would not be shocked if we eventually discover that the galaxy has
already been completely explored and cataloged.
Its no less impossible to go from a dead stop to 10,000 MPH without the craft disintegrating than FTL travel, so given that our understanding of gravity is very low, and our ability to create it is zero, maybe there is an undiscovered manipulation of the fabric of space-time via gravity wave generation at play by which the transit is reduced in duration or even distance in space. If you do not believe the 10,000 + witnesses who have described such performance capabilties (in addition to RADAR data, photos, video's etc.), that's your perogative, but if "they" are playing by a different set of rules here on earth, then perhaps its the same "out there." Regardless, it warrants a sober and scientific investigation without ridicule that does not screen out any potential hypothesis on the basis of 'I haven't seen it' as there may be good reasons why you haven't ... follow the data without preconceived expectations as any good scientist should. I don't see such an eclectic, widespread and prolific smattering of credible people witnessing incredible things in other paranormal genres like ghosts or Bigfoot or something. I'm not saying it's a sure thing, I'm saying it deserves legitimate, funded and serious study by legitimate, funded and serious people.
Hi Michael Shermer,
I think I have an interesting spin regarding the ufo challenge (1000$) you've put up, which you will find rather interesting.
In Elena Danaan's book, "a gift from the stars - extraterrestrial contacts and guide of alien races" p. 345 Alien Blood it is revealed by her contacts off planet that O blood type is extra terrestrial while the other blood types are indigenous to planet earth. The Annunaki then engineered the D protein to make the O blood type compatible with the other indigenous blood types.
I find this a rather interesting scientific discovery if that is indeed the case, which I think it is. Don't you think?
Also, could I be a contender for the 1000$ please?
Best regards,
Daniel Lehmann
Hello Michael, I'll wager $1000 ...
UFOs are real, of course.
Take a look at this UFO video:
UFO Video:
One of the World’s Best UFO Videos
(Aerial Footage) –
Tokyo, Japan – Unknown Date
(Recorded by NHK, Japan’s State Broadcaster)
Source: TV UFO Footage (my YouTube Channel)
This is one of the world’s best UFO videos, in my opinion.
The unknown object (white light) which flies slowly over Tokyo – is first seen in the upper left corner of the screen.
When the UFO is closest to the helicopter camera, one can see the body of the large elongated (or circular) UFO, and that it has large red and white pulsating lights (4 lights). The colours of the three blinking/pulsating lights varies between white and red. The largest light (white) does not pulsate.
The UFO seems to stop near the Tokyo Tower for a short while. It appears that the NHK camera operator notices the UFO, because the camera follows the UFO for a short while.
The fact that the video comes from Japan’s state broadcaster means that it is unimpeachable.
The footage comes from NHK World TV’s Aerial Tokyo channel, aired on 13 April 2022, at approximately 7:00 p.m. CET. This channel can be found in the German TV app, TV PRO.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBVkgxy5yqU
What about NASA's New Light Speed Engine? I’m just saying not everything is set in stone.
You guys, especially mr. Shermer are so smug. You just love telling people they are wrong and don’t know what they are talking about. Hundreds of credible people have (isn’t that the top question on your bullshit detection quiz?) talked about their experiences.
You are still using the Sagan logic of speed of light etc.
I haven’t ever heard you talk about other possibilities. Maybe there are different physics at play? Or things we can’t even fathom.
All I know is there is obviously something real happening, and if everyone agrees it isn’t from here, then where else could it be from? If you don’t think there are people who have a lot more info on this, then you are naive. I don’t know. But, neither do you. So stop it.
I recently re-read The Demon-Haunted World and forgot how much time was devoted to debunking extraterrestrials and UFOs. As a teenager in the 90's this seemed like a valid idea to debate but now, decades later, seems downright silly. I wonder how younger generations reading TDHW would take to Sagan to having to devote so much time to an idea that has retreated back to the fringe. I loved XKCD demolishing of all of this years back https://xkcd.com/1235/
I happen to disagree with the basic assuptions of both biology and physics that underlie the ideas discussed here.
First, humans did not develop as they did by accident. They, like all species, formed under the influence of environmental factors that determined the forms and behaviors that we see. These factors exist on all planets and would result in the same species forming on all of them. We can observe the process of already known species forming again and again directly from non-living materials on this planet. So I would expect to find humans identical to earth-humans on any world where humans could live.
Second, the current laws of physics are seriously flawed. Ever since the Michaelson-Morley experiment mistakenly abandoned the ether theory earth people's physics has been on the wrong track. The mistaken relativety theory blocks human scientists from seeing that once the ether is recognized there is no inherent limit to speeds in space. It is simply hubris to think current human science has the right slant and no further developments are possible.
I have no idea if ETs have been here or not so I take no position on that. But I do know that any world where conditions are liveable for humans will have them living there and that any physics theory that disposes of the ether and claims the universe is nothing but empty space with specks of matter here and there is contrrary to numerous observations that prove there is an ether so any speed limits it implies should be ignored.
We should all get in on the action and pledge $1,000. So when we win lots of us will eat get our money back and the alien boosters will be out of action for a long time.
Follow-up on my comment below.
In the report issued by ODNI, 144 cases of UAPs were analyzed, with one being attributed to terrestrial means. The rest unexplained. The US government states that those 143 cases can be attributed to 5 possible explanations:
airborne clutter, natural atmospheric phenomena, USG or U.S. industry developmental programs, foreign adversary systems, and a catchall “other” bin.
So maybe all those people you mention ( by the way, before you include Jacques Vallee as one who states it’s aliens, you should know he’s never said that) should challenge you. $1000 if all of those 143 unexplained phenomena can be proven by the US government (a disclosure if you will) to be either airborne clutter, atmospheric phenomena, US developed technology, or foreign technology. If you’re so sure, a year and a half to prove what those 143 events actually were shouldn’t be hard to do.
By the way, that ODNI report was in fact a disclosure…that there are events in the skies that are unexplainable, and haven’t been proven to be terrestrial, and are in fact a security risk, and are in fact worthy of further investigation. It’s pretty simple, regardless of people who pontificate as to knowing what they are, like Elizondo…and you.
The late Philip J. Klass, the "Dean of UFO Debunkers", famously offered 10-to-1 odds that proof of ET visitations would NOT be revealed during the lifetime of both parties. Klass would pay $10,000, the other party risked only $1,000. A few nibbles, but nobody followed through.
https://debunker.com/historical/TenThousandDollarOffer_UFOsExplained.jpg
Why no mention Avi Loeb and his Galileo Project? Maybe you could make a side bet with Avi over the ET status of Oumuamua.