Guest columnist Robert Bartholomew, one of the world’s leading scholars of mass hysterias and social panics, considers the panic over the recent drone sightings in the skies over New Jersey
govt of course is not being open about this which itself increases public fear and frustration..... why doesn't the govt just shoot them down? unidentified objects that invade US airspace are fit targets for removal by any and all means necessary
Just another silly essay by people trying so hard to be contrarian. Nobody and I mean nobody that I know is panicking and nobody that I know or comments that I have read from others think its a UFO.
They think that it might be drones from Iran and they dont say it because they are naive sheep. They are saying it because a Senator said that he has reputable sources that have told him that and he told the public. All reasonable and all possible.
What botheres me is you talk about a scare in 1914 but you purposely leave out the balloon of 2023 that people were talking about the same way they are talking about these drones. No panicking, we just want accountability from our Government as to what they are and why they are not shot down if they are over military bases. The balloon was from China which was admitted way late and the public was rightfully concerned.
Frankly, you guys are not cool and the essay is garbage. Call me a skeptic but I think you have a scarcity of things to be skeptical about as many of the conspiracies that have been talked about in the last few years have turned out to be accurate.
You may not be panicking but some people are worried they may contain explosives and initiate an attack; others are claiming it could be Iranian or Chinese in origin as they have been seen near military institutions. In this regard, it is a reflection of prevailing fears. Your use of emotive words like 'silly' and 'garbage' show that you are not interested in genuine discussion. Furthermore, you write that no one you know thinks it's a UFO. Not true. It is a UFO - it's an unidentified flying object. If we knew what it was - there wouldn't be so much speculation and concern.
Let's sort out a common misunderstanding. UFO flaps shouldn't be called mass hysteria. Mass delusion is the better term.
Mass hysteria has a more accepted term: mass psychogenic illness.
A classic example of mass hysteria: Rumors sweep through a high school dance that the punch has been tampered with. People start throwing up and fainting all over the gym.
Another: Someone smells what they think is natural gas. "There's a gas leak, everyone!" People start choking and fainting.
Most are not responding to the rumor, they are responding primarily to the physical symptoms of other people. The rumors are secondary.
There's nothing in the punch and no gas leak. But a phenomenon known as psychological contagion or emotional resonance is in play. People who are more attuned to the feelings of others start feeling the same way, and have actual physical symptoms. Other, more stolid folk, stand around looking at them wondering what the heck is going on.
Mass delusion involves large groups sharing a false belief, often rooted in social or cultural narratives. It influences behavior - in this case going out at night scanning the skies - and expectations. The expectations influence perception. People really do "see" flying saucers or mystery drones, because seeing is a personal experience created by the brain moment by moment.
"I know what I saw" is true in a way. They really did "see" a flying saucer while looking at Venus. And they really did "see" a mystery drone while looking at a mundane 737.
Mass delusion is not a diagnoses. It's a concept. It is not universally accepted, nor has it been formally defined by some professional body. Nevertheless I think it's a useful concept.
There's a process that's amplifying misperception.
Only misperceptions are reported. No one reports seeing ordinary air traffic. Therefore only the most unreliable witnesses are selected.
Superspreaders are the most unreliable witnesses. Yet they account for the majority of the eyewitness accounts. Thus this delusion is being created by a small fraction of the population.
That's not quite right, as deliberate hoaxes are also being generated.
The media is amplifying this because they know a good story. That's capitalism. Stories are accepted at face value.
Lack of knowledge plays its part. No one seems to understand visual perception. No one seems to understand that in 2-D photos, there's no information as to size and distance. When presented with these videos, people are primed by the eyewitness testimony to "see" car sized drones at hundreds of feet rather than normal sized airliners at miles.
In a photo, the Sun - at 93,000,000 miles - can be the same size as a pingpong ball at a few feet.
The second wave of amplification comes from the small percentage of the population who are eagerly consuming the stories. They all have their own paranoid/outlandish theories. Which they frame as wise and realistic evaluations.
Lastly, in my opinion: Many people are highly skeptical of the mass delusion explanation. It makes no sense to them. They would rather believe in the most outlandish stories than in the fallibility of the human race.
The mass delusion explanation is framed as outlandish nonsense, while an Iranian mothership is framed as a wise but uncomfortable truth about the International Situation and the Dangerous Times in which we live.
The argument goes: People are reluctant to face uncomfortable truths. So they come up with a lullaby argument - the mass delusion explanation.
Mass delusion would be an outlandish explanation if it were argued that 100% or even 50% of the general population was seeing mystery drones that aren't there. But that's not the argument. This mass delusion involves only a small fraction of the population. And the awful and irresponsible way the media is reporting this story.
The "All of them can't be wrong" fallacy...
Yes they can, because we're only hearing from the ones who got it wrong.
Scenario: You give a hundred thousand people a driving test. Ten thousand of them get question 10 wrong. That means ten thousand people were wrong. All of them, without exception.
"Wait, a minute. Are you telling me ten thousand people could all be wrong?"
Yeah, they could. By definition. But are you counting the people who got the question right? On a test... yes you do.
But the right people aren't counted during a UFO Flap.
A million people look at Venus. Nine hundred ninety nine thousand nine hundred of them see Venus... or at least something they take to be a star or something unremarkable.
A hundred people see a flying saucer.
"Well all of the couldn't be wrong."
Yeah, they could. Because only the people who made a mistake were selected out. They're the ones who got the question wrong.
But what about all the people who got the question right? They're the so called "missing people" who weren't wrong. But when it comes to UFOs, they're invisible.
The misperceptions are amplified to the point that they seem super important.
Just now, I'm going to add:
The logical fallacy here is misleading or incomplete statistics (a form of lying with statistics). By not considering the majority of people who are not "seeing" or reporting mystery drones, the conclusion misrepresents the data as universal, implying that if everyone who looked at a particular aircraft would "see" it as a mystery drone.
In terms of analytical statistics, the error is a failure to report the denominator or context of the proportion, leading to an overgeneralization. It omits key statistical measures like the sample size and the success rate, which are essential for accurate interpretation.
FEAR: False Evidence Appearing Real! Read Carl Sagan's Demon-Haunted World. Sagan's Maxim: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.. Claims without evidence can be dismissed without evidence. Read Michael Shermers book: Conspiracy, Why People Believe Weird Things, The Believing Brain: From Ghosts and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies --How We Construct Beliefs and Reinforce Them as Truths.
The spy balloon sage - which I have written about previously - is part of the social backdrop to this scare because it lends plausibility to the possibility of a nefarious foreign actor. You may not be panicking but others are - they're saying it could be Iran or China or that it could be carrying explosives.
Absolutely - and that is what is driving concern because a spy drones are deemed to be plausible in the wake of the Chinese balloon saga. In reality it's unlikely given that these things are flying around with flashing lights and essentially saying - 'Hey - look at me.' But your point is well taken.
I'm a little unpersuaded by your skepticism. The government is being awfully inscrutable about this, which, if it was a bunch of drone enthusiasts, they'd just say so. It's not beyond the ken to think these could be spy drones, after the Chinese balloon BS a year or two ago. You don't offer any real, logical explanations apart from some photos that *could* be planes....or not. Some of them are clearly not and I've found a photo of a rectangular-looking UFO with a light at each corner taken in broad daylight over California. There are plenty of military facilities in the region of the East Coast drones (not sure about the Cali one) and the Biden administration has been fairly pacifistic toward foreign powers, and didn't do anything about the balloon incidents, so maybe our enemies are taking a gander while they can before Trump takes office again.
WTF are these things and why won't anyone in a position of importance provide some real answers apart from 'There's nothing to worry about'? I'm unpersuaded by them as well.
Gentlemen- I am a fan but not listening to lots of people who have a claim is ivory tower dismissal. These are about 5' x 5' square flying machines often only 100'-200' off the ground. They are close enough that you can see the construction/structure. I have been in the company of people who have mistakes a jet, at much higher altitudes, for the drones. But the drones are real - I have seen 20+ - You are welcome to visit and see for yourself.
Have you thought that maybe you are misjudging the size and distance of these objects? Much beyond 60 feet it's impossible to judge distances with parallax cues from your two eyes. Depth perception is best at about arm's length. We rely a lot less on depth perception in daily life than most people think. We judge distances on knowledge of the relative sizes of objects we have learned from experience. Without depth perception, and without learned cues, the brain is helpless to judge size and distance in a featureless night sky.
Expectations then shape what we see. If we expect to see a car sized drone at hundreds of feet, we will actually "see" it as that, even though we're looking at an airliner miles away. It will seem completely real, as the brain creates everything we see (and experience) moment by moment. This is a well known problem.
Here's an example of how expectations help to create a visual perception. My perception of this Ames window as turning back and forth feels absolutely real... but it's absolutely false.
With close many in the US population suffering from GAD in not surprising to see fear in control. Others will always be wary of any new technologies good or bad. Especially when there is little understanding and evidence. Education and truth is key to reduce the panic and unfounded claims. Keep the fear alive?
Both were driven by geopolitical fears & xenophobia; in the early aeroplane scares it was the fear of German sympathizers who were believed to be operating planes over sensitive military bases and strategic plants/factories to spy or as a prelude to an attack. In the present scare, there are similar fears being expressed online and by politicians - only we swap out the word 'German' and we insert 'Iranian' or 'Chinese.'
"Just another silly essay by people trying so hard to be contrarian. Nobody and I mean nobody that I know is panicking and nobody that I know or comments that I have read from others think its a UFO.
They think that it might be drones from Iran"
well...
From the essay:
"There is one aspect of the drone scare that is refreshing: for once we are dealing with a UFO wave that is being attributed to a foreign power instead of aliens"
"Unidentified flying object (commonly abbreviated as UFO or U.F.O.) is the popular term for any apparent aerial phenomenon whose cause cannot be easily or immediately identified by the observer.
govt of course is not being open about this which itself increases public fear and frustration..... why doesn't the govt just shoot them down? unidentified objects that invade US airspace are fit targets for removal by any and all means necessary
Isn’t the whole point of this article is that people are confusing these drones with planes? Why would you shoot a plane down to prove a point?
Just another silly essay by people trying so hard to be contrarian. Nobody and I mean nobody that I know is panicking and nobody that I know or comments that I have read from others think its a UFO.
They think that it might be drones from Iran and they dont say it because they are naive sheep. They are saying it because a Senator said that he has reputable sources that have told him that and he told the public. All reasonable and all possible.
What botheres me is you talk about a scare in 1914 but you purposely leave out the balloon of 2023 that people were talking about the same way they are talking about these drones. No panicking, we just want accountability from our Government as to what they are and why they are not shot down if they are over military bases. The balloon was from China which was admitted way late and the public was rightfully concerned.
Frankly, you guys are not cool and the essay is garbage. Call me a skeptic but I think you have a scarcity of things to be skeptical about as many of the conspiracies that have been talked about in the last few years have turned out to be accurate.
other than that, you are doing great!
papa j
You may not be panicking but some people are worried they may contain explosives and initiate an attack; others are claiming it could be Iranian or Chinese in origin as they have been seen near military institutions. In this regard, it is a reflection of prevailing fears. Your use of emotive words like 'silly' and 'garbage' show that you are not interested in genuine discussion. Furthermore, you write that no one you know thinks it's a UFO. Not true. It is a UFO - it's an unidentified flying object. If we knew what it was - there wouldn't be so much speculation and concern.
This is what I said on Metabunk on Dec. 8
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/drones-over-new-jersey.13770/page-3#post-329620
Let's sort out a common misunderstanding. UFO flaps shouldn't be called mass hysteria. Mass delusion is the better term.
Mass hysteria has a more accepted term: mass psychogenic illness.
A classic example of mass hysteria: Rumors sweep through a high school dance that the punch has been tampered with. People start throwing up and fainting all over the gym.
Another: Someone smells what they think is natural gas. "There's a gas leak, everyone!" People start choking and fainting.
Most are not responding to the rumor, they are responding primarily to the physical symptoms of other people. The rumors are secondary.
There's nothing in the punch and no gas leak. But a phenomenon known as psychological contagion or emotional resonance is in play. People who are more attuned to the feelings of others start feeling the same way, and have actual physical symptoms. Other, more stolid folk, stand around looking at them wondering what the heck is going on.
Mass delusion involves large groups sharing a false belief, often rooted in social or cultural narratives. It influences behavior - in this case going out at night scanning the skies - and expectations. The expectations influence perception. People really do "see" flying saucers or mystery drones, because seeing is a personal experience created by the brain moment by moment.
"I know what I saw" is true in a way. They really did "see" a flying saucer while looking at Venus. And they really did "see" a mystery drone while looking at a mundane 737.
Mass delusion is not a diagnoses. It's a concept. It is not universally accepted, nor has it been formally defined by some professional body. Nevertheless I think it's a useful concept.
Also see: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/a-plane-mistaken-for-a-drone.13788/#post-329256
And on Dec. 12
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/drones-over-new-jersey.13770/page-9#post-330046
There's a process that's amplifying misperception.
Only misperceptions are reported. No one reports seeing ordinary air traffic. Therefore only the most unreliable witnesses are selected.
Superspreaders are the most unreliable witnesses. Yet they account for the majority of the eyewitness accounts. Thus this delusion is being created by a small fraction of the population.
That's not quite right, as deliberate hoaxes are also being generated.
The media is amplifying this because they know a good story. That's capitalism. Stories are accepted at face value.
Lack of knowledge plays its part. No one seems to understand visual perception. No one seems to understand that in 2-D photos, there's no information as to size and distance. When presented with these videos, people are primed by the eyewitness testimony to "see" car sized drones at hundreds of feet rather than normal sized airliners at miles.
In a photo, the Sun - at 93,000,000 miles - can be the same size as a pingpong ball at a few feet.
Please see :"Forced Perspective Photography"
https://www.metabunk.org/threads/cl...ured-by-photographer.13182/page-3#post-302869
The second wave of amplification comes from the small percentage of the population who are eagerly consuming the stories. They all have their own paranoid/outlandish theories. Which they frame as wise and realistic evaluations.
Lastly, in my opinion: Many people are highly skeptical of the mass delusion explanation. It makes no sense to them. They would rather believe in the most outlandish stories than in the fallibility of the human race.
The mass delusion explanation is framed as outlandish nonsense, while an Iranian mothership is framed as a wise but uncomfortable truth about the International Situation and the Dangerous Times in which we live.
The argument goes: People are reluctant to face uncomfortable truths. So they come up with a lullaby argument - the mass delusion explanation.
Mass delusion would be an outlandish explanation if it were argued that 100% or even 50% of the general population was seeing mystery drones that aren't there. But that's not the argument. This mass delusion involves only a small fraction of the population. And the awful and irresponsible way the media is reporting this story.
The "All of them can't be wrong" fallacy...
Yes they can, because we're only hearing from the ones who got it wrong.
Scenario: You give a hundred thousand people a driving test. Ten thousand of them get question 10 wrong. That means ten thousand people were wrong. All of them, without exception.
"Wait, a minute. Are you telling me ten thousand people could all be wrong?"
Yeah, they could. By definition. But are you counting the people who got the question right? On a test... yes you do.
But the right people aren't counted during a UFO Flap.
A million people look at Venus. Nine hundred ninety nine thousand nine hundred of them see Venus... or at least something they take to be a star or something unremarkable.
A hundred people see a flying saucer.
"Well all of the couldn't be wrong."
Yeah, they could. Because only the people who made a mistake were selected out. They're the ones who got the question wrong.
But what about all the people who got the question right? They're the so called "missing people" who weren't wrong. But when it comes to UFOs, they're invisible.
The misperceptions are amplified to the point that they seem super important.
Just now, I'm going to add:
The logical fallacy here is misleading or incomplete statistics (a form of lying with statistics). By not considering the majority of people who are not "seeing" or reporting mystery drones, the conclusion misrepresents the data as universal, implying that if everyone who looked at a particular aircraft would "see" it as a mystery drone.
In terms of analytical statistics, the error is a failure to report the denominator or context of the proportion, leading to an overgeneralization. It omits key statistical measures like the sample size and the success rate, which are essential for accurate interpretation.
You make some excellent points!
FEAR: False Evidence Appearing Real! Read Carl Sagan's Demon-Haunted World. Sagan's Maxim: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.. Claims without evidence can be dismissed without evidence. Read Michael Shermers book: Conspiracy, Why People Believe Weird Things, The Believing Brain: From Ghosts and Gods to Politics and Conspiracies --How We Construct Beliefs and Reinforce Them as Truths.
This article is not really addressing what has been reported. Yes, mass hysteria is always a possibility. The opposite is true as well.
It's not mass hysteria and never was. It is a social panic involving an exaggerated threat that is being projected onto the skies.
People aren’t panicking, they’re curious. After all what about the confirmed Chinese spy balloon a few months ago?
The spy balloon sage - which I have written about previously - is part of the social backdrop to this scare because it lends plausibility to the possibility of a nefarious foreign actor. You may not be panicking but others are - they're saying it could be Iran or China or that it could be carrying explosives.
It could well be more spying by China. No proof of that course but surely it’s possible.
Absolutely - and that is what is driving concern because a spy drones are deemed to be plausible in the wake of the Chinese balloon saga. In reality it's unlikely given that these things are flying around with flashing lights and essentially saying - 'Hey - look at me.' But your point is well taken.
I'm a little unpersuaded by your skepticism. The government is being awfully inscrutable about this, which, if it was a bunch of drone enthusiasts, they'd just say so. It's not beyond the ken to think these could be spy drones, after the Chinese balloon BS a year or two ago. You don't offer any real, logical explanations apart from some photos that *could* be planes....or not. Some of them are clearly not and I've found a photo of a rectangular-looking UFO with a light at each corner taken in broad daylight over California. There are plenty of military facilities in the region of the East Coast drones (not sure about the Cali one) and the Biden administration has been fairly pacifistic toward foreign powers, and didn't do anything about the balloon incidents, so maybe our enemies are taking a gander while they can before Trump takes office again.
WTF are these things and why won't anyone in a position of importance provide some real answers apart from 'There's nothing to worry about'? I'm unpersuaded by them as well.
Gentlemen- I am a fan but not listening to lots of people who have a claim is ivory tower dismissal. These are about 5' x 5' square flying machines often only 100'-200' off the ground. They are close enough that you can see the construction/structure. I have been in the company of people who have mistakes a jet, at much higher altitudes, for the drones. But the drones are real - I have seen 20+ - You are welcome to visit and see for yourself.
Have you thought that maybe you are misjudging the size and distance of these objects? Much beyond 60 feet it's impossible to judge distances with parallax cues from your two eyes. Depth perception is best at about arm's length. We rely a lot less on depth perception in daily life than most people think. We judge distances on knowledge of the relative sizes of objects we have learned from experience. Without depth perception, and without learned cues, the brain is helpless to judge size and distance in a featureless night sky.
Expectations then shape what we see. If we expect to see a car sized drone at hundreds of feet, we will actually "see" it as that, even though we're looking at an airliner miles away. It will seem completely real, as the brain creates everything we see (and experience) moment by moment. This is a well known problem.
Here's an example of how expectations help to create a visual perception. My perception of this Ames window as turning back and forth feels absolutely real... but it's absolutely false.
https://youtu.be/9AAdjpGer7k?si=A_cZXEX2SVHAerhw&t=6
With close many in the US population suffering from GAD in not surprising to see fear in control. Others will always be wary of any new technologies good or bad. Especially when there is little understanding and evidence. Education and truth is key to reduce the panic and unfounded claims. Keep the fear alive?
Thought this was good analysis from a reasonable source: Alex Hollings - Sandbox News
https://youtu.be/i8TQd7RhvyI?feature=shared
Between 1914 and 1918, there were at least 8 different phantom 'aeroplane' scares across the northeastern seaboard - see, for instance:
Bartholomew, Robert E. (1998). “War Scare Hysteria in the Delaware Region in 1916.” Delaware History 28(1):71-76 (Spring/Summer 1998)
That does not tell us anything this present case.
Both were driven by geopolitical fears & xenophobia; in the early aeroplane scares it was the fear of German sympathizers who were believed to be operating planes over sensitive military bases and strategic plants/factories to spy or as a prelude to an attack. In the present scare, there are similar fears being expressed online and by politicians - only we swap out the word 'German' and we insert 'Iranian' or 'Chinese.'
From one comment:
"Just another silly essay by people trying so hard to be contrarian. Nobody and I mean nobody that I know is panicking and nobody that I know or comments that I have read from others think its a UFO.
They think that it might be drones from Iran"
well...
From the essay:
"There is one aspect of the drone scare that is refreshing: for once we are dealing with a UFO wave that is being attributed to a foreign power instead of aliens"
"Unidentified flying object (commonly abbreviated as UFO or U.F.O.) is the popular term for any apparent aerial phenomenon whose cause cannot be easily or immediately identified by the observer.
https://www.secretsdeclassified.af.mil/Top-Flight-Documents/Unidentified-Flying-Objects/"
The Brockville incident was later reimagined as a UFO swarm in the 1960s IIRC. Phantom airships were also reported around the world from 1915-1918.